By: Dan Barto, Director of Player Development for the IMG Basketball Academy and The PTC
The Lakers are half smart and half lucky. En route to an NBA Championship, one must understand that getting Gasol in a fire sale and Derek Fischer in extreme circumstances have allowed the stars to align and domination to occur. Mitch Kupchak's job is pretty safe. John Paxson on the other hand has less than a month to make decisions that will ultimately seal his fate one way or another. The extra luck has added extra pressure. The Lakers turned around their franchise in a little over three years, and Boston in one year. What is the next step for the Bulls?
John Paxson has to look at the positives and negatives of drafting versus trading. His consistency to enact a plan is obvious, with numerous band aid types of trades and lack of commitment to key franchise builders. When I say franchise builders, I do not mean franchise players. He does however have a chance to use this pick to do something more than put fans in the seats at a higher price.
Why not draft Derrick Rose?
I absolutely love Rose's game. From all accounts, he is ready to step in and help someone immediately. He is from Chi-town, and will be a fan favorite from the second David Stern says "With the first pick.........." My reasoning comes from the standpoint of competing and building culture. If they select Rose, Duhon and or Hinrich are gone, probably packaged with either Drew Gooden or Andreas Nocioni. Of course they would bring a veteran point guard to help the cause, and if they keep one of the two above point guards, it would be a solid tandem. Now I could go through all of the trade possibilities, but the key component here is can that tandem compete with the likes of Chauncey Billups/Rodney Stucky/Lindsay Hunter, Sam Cassell/Rajon Rondo, Andre Miller/Willie Green/Louis Williams, Jameer Nelson/Carlos Arroyo/whatever free agent they bring in. The point is no matter how good Rose is, can he carry them past the semi-finals of the Eastern conference anytime soon?
If Gordon and/or Deng are in a sign and trade or just a tender year, that will not help them towards building a franchise of long term value, like the San Antonio Spurs and Detroit Pistons. People will rightfully argue the Chris Paul/Deron Williams ideas, but those guys were surrounded by experienced, hard nosed, “I have something to prove to the league” rosters, that were willing to do what it took to become good again. For the Bulls most of their core group is in a contract situation or close to an extension offer. I do not think the Bulls can surround Rose with that in an ample amount of time before he would be worrying about an extension/max deals
Why not draft Beasley?
Having had spent a lot of time with Mike and even more time watching him play, there is no doubt he can help the Bulls win games ASAP. There is a hole in front line scoring. Can that void be filled on draft day? At what expense one might wonder? Can Chicago have two alpha males on the front line, and two guys on the wing with contract years? Can Duhon and Hinrich over take the point guard groups above? Will Beasley be able to make those around him better and create a winning culture in the locker room? To me, Beasley makes sense only if you can ship the wing contracts for a seasoned point, and a mentor that would scare Beasley on an every day basis.
If anyone, take Lopez?
Brook Lopez staying two more years would have him easily surpass Tim Duncan's college career. If the Bulls bring him in and ship Gooden and or Nocioni, Lopez would be the perfect compliment to Noah, Thomas and Gray. A skilled mid post scorer who has a great understanding of the two man games and isolation play would fill the need, possibly better, because he will not demand the ball or rookie of the year contention. He could play the role that Horford did to Noah at Florida letting Noah have the spot light while he continued to carry the team offensively. Had Lopez not had some academic problems and OJ Mayo and Kevin Love in his conferernce we would not be having this converstation where everyone thinks I am crazy. The questions about Lopez have been his athleticism and his ability to run the floor. After seeing what the Bulls did with Aaron Gray, the fact that Lopez probably played 15 pounds heavier than he needed to and the all important fact that bigs develop later, he could progress greatly in one year.
Why trading the pick makes the most sense.
As in any organization, there are contracts that can be moved, locker room issues that can be resolved, and a team identity that can be developed with a blockbuster type of trade. Once the franchise builders are set in place, and the daily expectations for the team laid out, the coaching decision can be made. (See Houston) The team has its share of winners in place, but in order to move to the elite levels of the Eastern Conference within the next two years, Paxson must build around the current strengths, and leverage the pick into enhancing a plan.
The risk of the keeping the pick is either short term success or unemployment. His hitting percentage with risk taking is not real high, so I hope he goes for the sure things, whoever they may be.
The fact is Danny Ainge had a plan for this year and he executed it. Mitch Kupchak could have bounced Kobe last summer and received tons in return, but he instead based a plan around him and got some luck along the way. It’s time for Paxson to make a gutsy decision based on plan and value.
By Dan Barto, Director of Player Development at The IMG Basketball Academy and The PTC
Today's Outside the Lines special on ESPN outlined the crisscrossing story of an NBA runner, an up and coming NBA stud and the circus surrounding the recruitment of high level athletes. For those who did not see the story, it entailed an unemployed former reporter/convicted drug dealer saying that sports agency(BDA) outsourced the baby sitting duties to a person known to basketball circles(Rodney Guillory) to ensure that the player (OJ Mayo) had everything he needed. This everything meant clothes money and security (two different meanings). In turn for the security, OJ would then sign with the sports agency that supposedly orchestrated the whole deal when his career came to fruition.
Having been in the circles the Los Angeles pro and college basketball world, I had the chance to spend the day with OJ and Rodney on a hot Friday afternoon almost a year ago. Since I have been blessed to work with dozens of NBA players this was an intriguing day because I had heard so much about this kid and was ready to test him.
Up until that day I had know the legends of OJ from his days with the DI Greyhounds out of West Virginia as I was coaching in Pittsburgh at the time. OJ then moved along with Bill Walker to Cincinnati with the help of AAU coach Dwain Barnes who at the time was heavily involved with the Sonny Vaccaro backed Reebok movement. Rumors flew that it was a ploy to get the kids to commit to University of Cincinnati early and play for West Virginia bred Bob Huggins.
Under the tutelage of Jamie Mahaffey(Miami University of Ohio alum like me) OJ and Bill burst onto the national scene at North College Hill. For those next three years Mayo would dominate any competition or challenges that may have come his way. This was on the AAU circuit as well as the high school regular season. What I loved hearing was the stories of his domination of any players ranked anywhere near him as well as his huge performances in championship games.
By the time OJ and Rodney arrived at the gym, it was known fact that he was going to USC in the fall and he would most likely be a one and done situation. Though I do not remember whether it was his brother, cousin or just a friend, OJ brought a workout partner in theory.
The first thing that jumped out was OJ's lack of flexibility and single leg stability when going through the dynamic stretch. Having a powerful body and a man's build I expected the body control and range that matched a scorer of that type (most prolific scorer’s possess and master these exercises). His tight hips and the fact his face cringed so much during the glute activation had my mind racing on how much better this kid skills could get. He was nowhere near maxed out, a theory many haters proclaimed.
He was a pleasure to coach and I took the time to run him into the ground for about an hour and a half. His skill set has solid with the natural problem that young talented powerful players fight. Those problems were the ability to change speed, lowering the hips on moves, decelerating to finish, and core rotation coordination. With dead legs OJ continued to fire NBA threes with ease while he screamed at his partner for ending his efforts early.
Enter Rodney. Wait actually Rodney was there the whole time analyzing and pushing OJ to fight through and control his body language. Truly he was a mentor that day. He shared his story of how they met and reiterated the ESPN highlights of him just being straight forward with OJ about how life really is. At one point during our conversations he said, "The kid has a long way to go to meet the expectations that are out there."
In many ways Rodney was right, he was also right about the fact that USC was a great choice because Tim Floyd had experience in the NBA and the other options Calipari and Pitino did not necessarily produce the hardest working, go getting professionals that Rodney wanted to instill into OJ. He also noted that LA is not the worst place to be in the world when you have spent the last five years in West Virginia and Ohio.
Next OJ ventured into the weight room and learned that he had a long ways to go to get his body to the level of an NBA veteran. Struggling with balance and rotational power activities again, he enjoyed the challenges and asked numerous questions. As he finished his supplemental shake in the steam room he pointed out that most of his competition probably spent their Friday afternoon in a different manner.
As I dropped them off at the infamous Infiniti truck, I questioned the relationship and the intentions in my mind. I then though back to all of the things that I have heard rumored in the college ranks. Things such as players being deliver to agents for future recruits, families getting high paying jobs in the college town that there son chooses, the amazing real estate quick flips that inner circles where able to pull off right around the time a recruit committed and the incredible upgrade in car choices.
After reliving my experience with OJ and Rodney, I think there are a lot worse things that the kid could have been surrounded with for the last 5 years. According to ESPN's source Guillory may have spent used 250,000 over that time giving at least 30,000 to Mayo. That's a salary of 44,000 a year before expenses or money spent or hell even gas for the Infiniti. In Los Angeles that is border line poverty. What anyone really gets out of the deal we may never know, but considering all of the things that go on in the sports business this probably is not uncommon. When you look at the fall out rate for highly regarded 9th graders over the following 5 years of basketball it looks like all of this may have been worth the investment however it happened.
OJ Mayo’s career should fall somewhere between Kobe and Ray Allen. He is not afraid of work and loves a challenge. For those who question his college career remember that his worst game of the year was against Russell Westbrook who is also a lottery pick. Compared to Rose you have to take a long look at supporting casts an the answer lies within.
By Dan Barto, Director of Player Development of The IMG Basketball Academy and The PTC
As Mike Brown continues to search for answers to ignite his stagnant offense ,I suggest calling in the master of the 1-4 high offense for better looks and isos
Why?
Cleveland is shooting under 33% from the field obviously is killing them. Thriving all year on Lebron's attacking, which results in points and the defense constantly chasing, the Cavs have to find a way to breakdown the Celtics terrific team defense within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock. So far Lebron has been soft when attacking off the ball screen, and outside of Joe Smith and Delonte West in certain situations the Cavs have no way of gaining an attacking advantage. Up until this point I would have said just make shots. However, looking at the matchups I think that lots of 1-4 high looks will allow the following things to happen which will lead to high percentage shots, putbacks, and Celtic frustration.
If Lebron initiates the offense, he has the following options that I think could get the Cavs some nice looks
1.) Use either high ball screen to get more open looks for the immediate near side shooter. Wally and Gibson are great at reading drives but have been catching passes at weird angles and having to rush their fluent standstill jumpers and force robotic drives. More chasing will result in streaks and more midrange attempts. If Lebron comes off hard the defense has to decide and execute quickly. If they over play the shooter, he clears and Lebron has an immediate midpost backdown ala Tayshaun Prince or Chauncey.
2.) If the Celtics sag off Wallace or Z, the Cavs Lebron can then look to feed and follow to Smith the clear through and the opposite big can ball screen for him or dive and iso him. This could lead to him gaining the advantage and causing the defense to again have to make a decision or chase right off the bat. If Z sets the high screen I would look for the easy pop or a quick pop to Z into a dribble handoff with Lebron or West. If it is Wallace or Varejao, I would have them head hunt Lebron, who is most likely in the corner for a basket cut or a basket cut to post up. Worst case Smith is in a dribble handoff situation with Wally or West, both of whom can make the right read and misdirection their defender.
3.) If the Celts do sag off the shooters and key on Lebron, the Cavs can look to use him in quick entries using the high back screen to get into the midpost. These midpost touches will lead to more free throws, fouls called at home, and allow Varejao and Wallace to do what they do best and get high percentage put backs and keep the ball alive.
If West initiates the offense,
Again the Celtics team defense and execution has been awesome, so the goal is to gain an advantage immediately.
1.) Pierce, Allen, Perkins, and Cassell all have problems moving side to side so they must be dribble isos more often as well as blur screens from shooters.
Example,
4 low, Lebron in left corner, Gibson in Right Corner, Wally left block, Z right block. West iso at top. Wally sprints to the screen on West's left, Gibson clears through, Z flashes to offensive left elbow. West and Wally try to expose Pierce and Cassell in a pick and pop. If they switch Wally dives to mid post. Gibson and Z stagger away for Lebron. Z and Wally set a baseline double for Gibson
2.) Rondo is a beast on the ball and pushes West at least 2 feet farther than he should be. In a 1-4 set, he would constantly be having to look over both shoulders to see where the screens were coming from. I would instruct Wallace and Varejao to blast Rondo every chance they get and try to dive as hard as possible to the rim. Yes, he may go under in which case they should use the European bull dozer method of taking Rondo with them.
3.) If the spacing is correct West should look to iso to draw and kick or go into a two man game with Lebron. These could consist of pinch post actions, blur screens, or handoffs. West to Lebron or Lebron to West is the only time the Cavs have two iso or breakdown guys working together. If they look to use each other more it should open up easier looks and put backs throughout the next two games.
It would be interesting to see what the Wizard of Westwood would draw up.
