The Bulls should trade the pick!!!!!!!

By: Dan Barto, Director of Player Development for the IMG Basketball Academy and The PTC

The Lakers are half smart and half lucky.  En route to an NBA Championship, one must understand that getting Gasol in a fire sale and Derek Fischer in extreme circumstances have allowed the stars to align and domination to occur.  Mitch Kupchak's job is pretty safe.  John Paxson on the other hand has less than a month to make decisions that will ultimately seal his fate one way or another.  The extra luck has added extra pressure.  The Lakers turned around their franchise in a little over three years, and Boston in one year.  What is the next step for the Bulls? 

John Paxson has to look at the positives and negatives of drafting versus trading.  His consistency to enact a plan is obvious, with numerous band aid types of trades and lack of commitment to key franchise builders.  When I say franchise builders, I do not mean franchise players.  He does however have a chance to use this pick to do something more than put fans in the seats at a higher price.

Why not draft Derrick Rose?

I absolutely love Rose's game.  From all accounts, he is ready to step in and help someone immediately.  He is from Chi-town, and will be a fan favorite from the second David Stern says "With the first pick.........."  My reasoning comes from the standpoint of competing and building culture.  If they select Rose, Duhon and or Hinrich are gone, probably packaged with either Drew Gooden or Andreas Nocioni.  Of course they would bring a veteran point guard to help the cause, and if they keep one of the two above point guards, it would be a solid tandem.  Now I could go through all of the trade possibilities, but the key component here is can that tandem compete with the likes of Chauncey Billups/Rodney Stucky/Lindsay Hunter, Sam Cassell/Rajon Rondo, Andre Miller/Willie Green/Louis Williams, Jameer Nelson/Carlos Arroyo/whatever free agent they bring in.  The point is no matter how good Rose is, can he carry them past the semi-finals of the Eastern conference anytime soon?

If Gordon and/or Deng are in a sign and trade or just a tender year, that will not help them towards building a franchise of long term value, like the San Antonio Spurs and Detroit Pistons.  People will rightfully argue the Chris Paul/Deron Williams ideas, but those guys were surrounded by experienced, hard nosed, “I have something to prove to the league” rosters, that were willing to do what it took to become good again.  For the Bulls most of their core group is in a contract situation or close to an extension offer.  I do not think the Bulls can surround Rose with that in an ample amount of time before he would be worrying about an extension/max deals

Why not draft Beasley?

Having had spent a lot of time with Mike and even more time watching him play, there is no doubt he can help the Bulls win games ASAP.  There is a hole in front line scoring.  Can that void be filled on draft day?  At what expense one might wonder?  Can Chicago have two alpha males on the front line, and two guys on the wing with contract years?  Can Duhon and Hinrich over take the point guard groups above?  Will Beasley be able to make those around him better and create a winning culture in the locker room?  To me, Beasley makes sense only if you can ship the wing contracts for a seasoned point, and a mentor that would scare Beasley on an every day basis.

If anyone, take Lopez?

Brook Lopez staying two more years would have him easily surpass Tim Duncan's college career.  If the Bulls bring him in and ship Gooden and or Nocioni, Lopez would be the perfect compliment to Noah, Thomas and Gray.  A skilled mid post scorer who has a great understanding of the two man games and isolation play would fill the need, possibly better, because he will not demand the ball or rookie of the year contention.  He could play the role that Horford did to Noah at Florida letting Noah have the spot light while he continued to carry the team offensively.  Had Lopez not had some academic problems and OJ Mayo and Kevin Love in his conferernce we would not be having this converstation where everyone thinks I am crazy.  The questions about Lopez have been his athleticism and his ability to run the floor.  After seeing what the Bulls did with Aaron Gray, the fact that Lopez probably played 15 pounds heavier than he needed to and the all important fact that bigs develop later, he could progress greatly in one year. 

Why trading the pick makes the most sense.

As in any organization, there are contracts that can be moved, locker room issues that can be resolved, and a team identity that can be developed with a blockbuster type of trade.  Once the franchise builders are set in place, and the daily expectations for the team laid out, the coaching decision can be made. (See Houston)  The team has its share of winners in place, but in order to move to the elite levels of the Eastern Conference within the next two years, Paxson must build around the current strengths, and leverage the pick into enhancing a plan.

The risk of the keeping the pick is either short term success or unemployment.  His hitting percentage with risk taking is not real high, so I hope he goes for the sure things, whoever they may be.

The fact is Danny Ainge had a plan for this year and he executed it.  Mitch Kupchak could have bounced Kobe last summer and received tons in return, but he instead based a plan around him and got some luck along the way.  It’s time for Paxson to make a gutsy decision based on plan and value.