Shaun Livingston is Worth The Risk
By Dan Barto, Coordinator of Player Development at The Basketball Academy and Pro Training Center at IMG Academies
Injuries are a terrible thing to witness. Willis McGahee’s misstep, witnessed by millions during his final collegiate game, might have been outdone by Shaun Livingston's horrific knee blowout 18 months ago. Numerous reports are coming down the wire stating that the Clippers will not tender a qualifying offer to the former Chicago high school star. Donald Sterling is a business first owner who feels like they have lost enough with this current asset. Not personal… all business.
The question remains, however, what is his worth and how bad is the injury going to affect him? As the former fourth overall pick, teams obviously loved his upside during the straight-from-high-school dominated draft of 2004. Now injured, here are the factors that I would look when evaluating Livingston if I was a GM.
1.) His first two years were above average when compared to guards that may have been hyped as more game ready in the 2004 draft. An average pace and efficiency when compared to Harris, Telfair, Nelson, Urdih, and West also included one year of 20+ minutes a game in the playoffs only to be topped by West.
2.) Knee injuries involve great risk. 99% of the players I have personally worked with who have had any type of surgery and make it all the way back develop an arrogance of hard work and preparation. All those slow hours of rehab, watching all those games, many lonely nights left wondering lead to a dedicated and work-oriented type of player.
3.) Shaun was always knocked for being skinny. Now I do not know what he weighs but I do know that he is currently one hundred percent stronger than he was. Between the upper body lifting, core work, rotational work and single leg firing pattern work that he has been doing he is probably stronger that any college counterpart.
4.) The bad side of injuries usually is that players may compensate and lose lateral quickness. If Shaun is significantly stronger and knows this he will learn to use this length, creativity, and mental warfare (practicing with Sam Cassell for two years had to teach him something) to be a better defender. These options do not exist for many players given their size and inability to visualize, two of Shaun's biggest strengths.
5.) Being a point guard that can push the ball, master the use of the ball screen, changing zones in transition, isolation back down, rebound and push, post up, and contest a high percentage of his opponent’s shots is invaluable. Who else has those abilities in the league let alone this year's free agent point guards.[AM1]
6.) Having been a non-threat from the outside for his first two years, I would imagine that he got up a lot of shots. More importantly, with the improved firing patterns in his legs and the additional strength in his LEC (leg energy control for those non shooting people), his confidence and technique are likely ahead of where he used to be.
8.) Worst case scenario, he can create match-up problems at the small forward position much like Tayshaun Prince. What contender would not want that?
Top 5 teams that should at least take a look, if not get involved and make an offer:
1.) Phoenix - The comments made by Shaq and Grant Hill based on the things done by the Phoenix strength and conditioning people made me a believer. If anyone can maximize and maintain his recovery it is them. Steve Nash is not going to be around forever. Where did Steve Kerr play again? Oh yeah… the same place that Shaun Livingston grew up.
2.) Dallas - Kidd is older and has had the dreaded micro-fracture surgery. Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle is the master of running sets and preparing for mismatches game-to-game. Mark Cuban loves to gamble. Best facilities in the league. This would give them two great wing defenders with Josh Howard allowing them to play better at the variety of paces they will see next year in the West.
3.) Miami - Needs a lead guard. Sign Shawn Marion and get Livingston for next to nothing. Dwyane Wade even encourages a Chicago connection. Imagine a team that featured Livingston, Wade, Beasley, Haslem, Marion, Ricky Davis, Jason Williams, Dequean Cook… with everyone locked in for a couple years. Tough.
4.) Indiana – Now without Jamaal Tinsley, and with Travis Diener and TJ Ford both undersized, the Pacers have a definite need. Could be a great place for Shaun to get lots of minutes and possibly be their point guard of the future.
5.) Minnesota – Sebastian Telfair and Randy Foye improved last year. Both are a little undersized for their positions, and their careers could go either way after this upcoming season. McHale likes his job and a gutsy move like this with a younger more determined player might be better than throwing money at a high priced free agent next summer. In towns like Minnesota they want something that they developed to root for and they have some of the pieces from a character standpoint in place. This could make them a contender for a low playoff push.
Great to be back blogging after some time off to do playoff and draft analysis and find our kids college placement. I look forward to the comments.
